Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 8.025941 9.227060 10.522916 12.021969 13.705251 15.533928 17.667735
2026-01-11 6.203991 7.811612 9.683566 12.012375 14.818900 18.078413 22.135903
2026-01-18 5.191937 6.938855 9.076265 11.861631 15.370670 19.617803 25.117166
2026-01-25 4.485703 6.326258 8.680316 11.876568 16.062464 21.312773 28.344154
2026-02-01 3.979883 5.883191 8.413062 11.971363 16.787640 23.012818 31.587761
2026-02-08 3.509440 5.423384 8.060987 11.894479 17.243227 24.348874 34.389537
2026-02-15 3.110019 5.011571 7.722301 11.783859 17.611475 25.549669 37.029403
2026-02-22 2.823882 4.730267 7.533877 11.852994 18.209092 27.064460 40.138279
2026-03-01 2.644851 4.589538 7.531352 12.178099 19.172743 29.114541 44.062825
2026-03-08 2.364541 4.258503 7.209572 11.993722 19.365409 30.060446 46.444066
2026-03-15 2.046553 3.831676 6.699898 11.476035 19.013457 30.179714 47.611119
2026-03-22 1.938369 3.745229 6.721243 11.784501 19.928696 32.195098 51.631000
2026-03-29 1.813261 3.620519 6.674804 11.987732 20.702172 34.050995 55.524380
2026-04-05 1.647698 3.406747 6.461523 11.900440 21.005336 35.198939 58.391106
2026-04-12 1.495161 3.199755 6.240153 11.777892 21.233513 36.225473 61.093138
2026-04-19 1.378278 3.047672 6.101386 11.783245 21.665736 37.582642 64.354007
2026-04-26 1.286067 2.933720 6.020615 11.880744 22.251164 39.200517 68.078896
2026-05-03 1.178931 2.778194 5.849815 11.803198 22.527592 40.320216 71.036937
2026-05-10 1.078216 2.624838 5.669737 11.693732 22.736840 41.329312 73.841849
2026-05-17 1.007822 2.528166 5.590061 11.762259 23.258250 42.871996 77.569794
2026-05-24 0.971053 2.501094 5.644446 12.085234 24.248092 45.239357 82.746583
2026-05-31 0.884310 2.352532 5.442961 11.902075 24.304377 46.006683 85.251301
2026-06-07 0.774166 2.136968 5.085632 11.387876 23.717336 45.627923 85.780800